June 6, 2023
United States:
Goldman Lowers US Recession Probability to 25% After Debt Deal
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its estimate of the odds of a US recession over the next 12 months to 25% based on waning banking-sector stress and the bipartisan agreement to suspend the nation’s debt limit.
The move reverses Goldman’s mid-March upgrade of recession probability to 35% after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Europe:
Russian Crude Flows Stay High as OPEC+ Partners Call for Clarity
Russian crude oil flows to international markets continue unabated, with no substantive sign of the output cuts that the Kremlin insists the country is making.
Four-week average seaborne shipments, which smooth out some of the volatility in weekly numbers, edged higher in the period to June 4, rising to 3.73 million barrels a day from a revised 3.68 million in the period to May 28.
Flows to international markets are more than 1.4 million barrels a day higher than they were at the end of last year — more than can be accounted for by the diversion of pipeline flows or lower refinery runs. Shipments have also risen since February, the baseline month for the pledged production cut.
Asia:
China Edging Out Russia as Sanctions Redraw Kazakhstan Trade
An economic seesaw between China and Russia in Central Asia is moving toward a new equilibrium for Kazakhstan, which expects its eastern neighbor to come out on top as international sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine transform commerce.
In the over three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia held on to its spot as the biggest trading partner for Kazakhstan even as China made inroads across much of the region that stretches from the Caspian to Manchuria.
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