June 29, 2023
In its third estimate, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up the US real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2023. Real GDP is now estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2% for Q1 2023, up from the 1.3% previously estimated. For Q4 2022, real GDP’s growth rate was 2.6%.
The revision follows increases in exports and consumer spending, which were slightly offset by decreases in nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.
The growth in real GDP for Q1 2023 was due to increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment, partly offset by declines in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports also increased.
The slowdown in real GDP growth in Q1 2023 relative to Q4 2022 was primarily due to a fall in private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. This was offset by an increase in consumer spending, exports, and in residential fixed investment. Imports increased.
The first quarter’s current‑dollar GDP climbed at an annual rate of 6.1% or $391.8 billion to $26.53 trillion, up from the previous estimate.
For Q1 2023, the price index for gross domestic purchases went up 3.8%, same as the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.1%, revised down 0.1 percentage point. The PCE price index excluding food and energy prices increased 4.9%, revised down 0.1 percentage point.
In the first quarter, current-dollar personal income increased by $278.0 billion, mainly due to increased compensation and personal current transfer receipts. Disposable personal income increased by 12.9% or $587.9 billion, while personal saving reached $840.9 billion, with a 4.3% personal saving rate.
Analyst Certification – The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer (s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view (s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.
Company Disclosure – The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.
