November 13, 2023
United States:
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Diverge on Fed Rate-Cut Forecasts
Morgan Stanley economists forecast the Federal Reserve to make deep interest-rate cuts over the next two years as inflation cools, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts expect fewer reductions and a later start.
The central bank will start cutting rates in June 2024, then again in September and every meeting from the fourth quarter onward, each in 25-basis point increments, Morgan Stanley researchers led by chief US economist Ellen Zentner said in their 2024 outlook on Sunday. That’ll take the policy rate down to 2.375% by the end of 2025, they said.
Europe:
Euro-Zone Inflation May Temporarily Rebound, ECB’s Guindos Says
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that consumer-price growth may pick up again temporarily, though its prevailing direction is downwards.
Speaking to the Frankfurt Euro Finance Week on Monday, he said that the euro-zone economy will stay subdued for now though it should then strengthen again, while there are signs that the labor market is starting to weaken.
Asia:
China’s Consumption Recovery Is Losing Momentum, Data Show
China’s consumption rebound slowed and private business confidence lost momentum in October, according to independent surveys and alternative data that suggested the economic recovery remains bumpy.
An indicator of Chinese consumer demand for recreation and transport published by Paris-based QuantCube Technology, along with an independent survey of consumer sentiment by US company Morning Consult, both fell in October from the previous month. A poll of private business sentiment from the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business also declined in the month.
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