May 22, 2026
United States:
Economists Boost US Inflation Forecast, Push Out Fed Cut on War
Economists raised their US inflation estimates and pushed out their timeline for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as the price shock triggered by the Iran war starts to spread beyond higher energy costs.
The personal consumption expenditures price index is now seen rising 3.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, up from a 3.6% estimate last month, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists.
Europe:
Euro-Zone Wage Growth Slowed Before War Drove Inflation Up
A key measure of euro-area pay growth slowed, providing some relief to European Central Bank officials worrying about emerging inflation risks from the Iran war.
First-quarter negotiated wages rose 2.5% from a year ago, the ECB said Friday. That’s below the previous period’s 2.9% reading and far lower than the 5.6% peak in 2024.
Asia:
Japan Inflation Eases to Four-Year Low, Complicating BOJ Hike
Japan’s key inflation gauge rose at the slowest pace in four years as the government continued to help ease the cost of living, creating difficult optics for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon.
Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, rose 1.4% in April from a year earlier, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said Friday.
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