October 1, 2026
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported a 2.9% decline in Jamaica’s total value added in the second quarter (April–June) of 2026 compared with the same quarter of 2025. Real value added fell to $420.9 billion from $433.4 billion. Both major groups contracted: the Goods Producing Industries fell 6.3% and the Services Industries fell 1.8%.
This is the third straight quarter of year-over-year decline since Hurricane Melissa, but each decline has been smaller than the last: -7.1% in Q4 2025, -4.1% in Q1 2026 and -2.9% in Q2 2026. Dry conditions across most parishes, the lingering effects of the hurricane and a sharp drop in visitor arrivals continued to weigh on output.
Goods Producing Industries
The 6.3% contraction was driven by Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (-15.3%) and Mining & Quarrying (-26.1%). Manufacturing (+0.1%) and Construction (+0.4%) posted small gains.
Agriculture was hurt by drought and hurricane after-effects. The Growing of Fruits sub-group fell 55.6%, led by declines of 72.0% in banana production and 77.5% in plantain production. Yams and other root crops fell 16.3% as the area reaped dropped 11.7%, although potato output rose 16.9%. Vegetables and condiments fell 4.6% on lower output of tomatoes, sweet peppers and hot peppers. Growth in Other Crops and Animal Production helped moderate the overall decline.
Mining & Quarrying fell on lower bauxite and alumina output. Total bauxite production fell 16.1% to 1,317,644 tonnes. Alumina production fell 30.8% to 251,933 tonnes, and alumina exports fell 32.2% to 268,081 tonnes. Crude bauxite was a bright spot: production rose 8.8% to 513,957 tonnes and exports rose 5.4% to 503,938 tonnes.
Manufacturing edged up 0.1%. Other Manufacturing grew 7.1%, mainly because Non-Metallic Mineral Products, especially cement, rose 40.8%. This was partly offset by a 19.6% fall in Refined Petroleum Products, as the refinery had fewer operating days, and a 0.6% dip in Chemicals. Food, Beverages & Tobacco fell 3.8%, with lower output of dairy, oils and fats, grain milling, animal feeds and beverages.
Construction grew 0.4%, supported by government-led civil engineering capital spending, higher sales of construction materials and increased construction lending by commercial banks.
Services Industries
The Services Industries fell 1.8%, with declines in most sectors.
The steepest contraction was in Accommodation & Food Service Activities (-12.3%). Foreign national arrivals fell 21.0%, from 691,796 to 546,413, and some hotels remained closed. Transport & Storage declined 6.1% as tourism-related travel weakened, and airport passenger traffic fell 15.1%. Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management fell 4.2%: electricity consumption dropped 2.4% to 812,917 MWh and water consumption fell 7.5% to 4,410.6 million gallons.
Real Estate & Business Activities fell 3.7%, mainly on weaker business process outsourcing, equipment leasing and accounting services. The Real Estate sub-industry itself grew 1.6%. Information & Communication declined 1.5% because of hurricane after-effects and the continued shift of advertising away from traditional platforms. Education, Health & Other Services fell 1.3%, reflecting lower activity at amusement parks, beaches and recreation parks, as well as in betting and gaming. Stopover arrivals fell 19.4% and cruise passenger arrivals fell 6.8%.
Three sectors grew. Financial & Insurance Activities rose 3.0% on higher commercial bank net interest income and fees. Wholesale & Retail Trade grew 0.6%, helped by construction activity and petroleum distribution, though weaker employment held back demand. Public Administration & Defence rose 0.3%.
Quarter-over-Quarter Performance
On a seasonally adjusted basis, real value added rose 1.2% compared with January–March 2026. This was the second consecutive quarter of growth, following a 3.0% increase in Q1. The Goods Producing Industries grew 1.7%, led by Agriculture (+5.1%), Construction (+1.1%) and Manufacturing (+0.7%), while Mining & Quarrying fell 10.2%. The Services Industries grew 1.0%. Accommodation & Food Services led with 8.2%, followed by Electricity & Water (+2.8%), Transport & Storage (+1.8%), Financial & Insurance (+1.3%), Public Administration (+0.9%), Information & Communication (+0.5%) and Wholesale & Retail (+0.4%). Real Estate & Business Activities (-0.5%) and Education, Health & Other Services (-0.1%) declined.
Even with this recovery, seasonally adjusted output of $424.0 billion remains about 3.3% below the pre-hurricane level of $438.7 billion in Q3 2025.
Fiscal Year and Nominal Context
For fiscal year 2025/26 (April–March), real value added totalled $1.70 trillion, down about 1.2% from 2024/25. In current prices, GDP at market prices for Q2 2026 was $908.1 billion, compared with $878.4 billion in Q2 2025.
(Source: STATINJA)
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