May 4, 2026
United States:
Treasuries Start Week Under Pressure as Oil Prices Resume Climb
Treasuries fell as heightened tensions in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, fanning concerns over the inflation outlook.
Yields were two to three basis points higher in early US trading, off session highs and inside last week’s ranges. Short-maturity yields most sensitive to shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy rose the most, the two-year note’s climbing as much as six basis points to 3.94%.
Europe:
Euro-Zone Inflation Jump Seen as Temporary, ECB Survey Shows
Euro-zone inflation will jump to 2.7% on average this year but return close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target already next year, according to the institution’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
Respondents revised up their expectations for 2026 significantly — from 1.8% in the previous round — while they see price gains of 2.1% and 2% in 2027 and 2028. At the same time, they forecast slightly slower economic growth than before.
Asia:
Yen’s Brief Spike Leaves Traders on High Alert for Intervention
A sudden surge in the yen ensured traders remained on edge over the potential for Japanese authorities to step back into the market after last week’s intervention to curb declines.
The currency strengthened as much as 0.8% to 155.72 per dollar in a thin holiday session in Asia, before retracing most of those gains and steadying just below 157. The spike came after Japan likely spent around ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 billion) last week to support the yen — a warning shot to traders after it had weakened past 160 per dollar.
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