Suriname’s economy is projected to grow faster than Guyana’s in 2028 as the country prepares to enter a new phase of offshore oil production, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update. The Bank forecasts real GDP growth of 21.5 per cent for Suriname in 2028, compared with 15.3 per cent for Guyana.

The expected acceleration in Suriname coincides with the planned start of production at the GranMorgu offshore oil development. However, the stronger growth rate does not mean Suriname’s economy is expected to overtake Guyana’s. Guyana entered 2026 with a nominal economy roughly six times larger after several years of rapid expansion driven by offshore oil production.

That difference in economic scale helps explain why Guyana continues to post exceptionally strong growth even as its percentage expansion gradually moderates. The World Bank estimates that Guyana’s economy will grow by 23.7 per cent in 2026 and 18.7 per cent in 2027. By comparison, Suriname is projected to expand by 3.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent over the same two years.

The contrasting outlook reflects the different stages of development of the two countries’ offshore oil industries. The World Bank described Guyana’s growth as being driven by the continued scaling up of offshore oil production, while Suriname is benefiting from accelerating investment linked to its own offshore discoveries.

The GranMorgu project is expected to become the central driver of Suriname’s economic acceleration. Operated by TotalEnergies on Block 58, the development is scheduled to begin producing oil in 2028. The project includes a floating production, storage and offloading vessel with capacity of approximately 220,000 barrels per day.

TotalEnergies reached a final investment decision on GranMorgu in October 2024 and has since continued development work with partners APA Corporation and Staatsolie. In a September 2026 update, the company said construction of the production vessel and manufacturing of subsea equipment were progressing, with drilling and offshore installation activities scheduled to begin in early 2027.

The projected shift in 2028 therefore represents an acceleration in Suriname’s growth rather than a reversal of the broader economic gap between the two countries. Guyana’s economy expanded by 43.8 per cent in 2024 and 19.3 per cent in 2025, while Suriname recorded growth of 1.7 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

Looking ahead, both economies are expected to remain among the region’s strongest performers. Guyana will continue benefiting from an established and expanding oil sector, while Suriname’s outlook is set to change significantly as GranMorgu moves from investment and construction into commercial production.

Source: (Oil Now)

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