May 29, 2024

According to preliminary estimates from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), for the January – March 2024 quarter, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.9% relative to the corresponding quarter of 2023.

The performance for the January to March 2024 quarter was influenced by several key factors:

• Increased external demand, driven by the economic growth of Jamaica’s main trading partners, benefiting the Transport, Hotels & Restaurants, and Other Services industries.
• Higher levels of business and consumer confidence.
• Increased agricultural output, due to higher yield per hectare and more hectares harvested.
• Expanded capacity utilization at alumina refineries, leading to higher alumina production.

The Goods Producing Industry is estimated to have increased by 3.0%, due to improvements in the Agriculture (+7.7%), Mining & Quarrying (+24.8%) and Manufacturing (+2.0%) industries. These improvements outweighed contractions recorded for the Construction (-4.5%) industry.

The improved performance for the Goods Producing Industry stemmed from favorable weather conditions, increased output of Alumina and Crude Bauxite and growth in both the Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Other Manufacturing sub-industries.

The Services Industry was estimated to have grown by 1.6%, relative to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This reflected higher Real Value Added for most industries, Electricity & Water Supply (+6.7%), Transport, Storage & Communication (+1.4%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (+0.9%), Finance & Insurance Services (+1.5%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (+1.0%), Hotels and Restaurants (+6.3%) and Other Services (+1.0%). The Producers of Government Services industry fell by 0.3%.

The improved performance for the Services Industry was primarily driven by travel and tourism, along with a general increase in electricity demand due to expanded economic activity.

Outlook 

For April–June 2024, the economic growth prospects for Jamaica are positive, with an anticipated growth rate of 1.5% to 2.5% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is expected to be driven by:

• Continued strengthening of the Mining & Quarrying industry due to higher capacity utilization at alumina refineries.
• Increased domestic demand, supported by high employment levels.
• Strengthening in the global economy, boosting external demand for Jamaica’s goods and services.

For Fiscal Year 2024/25, projected growth is between 1.0% and 3.0%, with all industries expected to grow. This period marks a new growth phase as Jamaica surpasses pre-COVID-19 output levels, led by growth in the Hotels & Restaurants, Other Services, Transport, Storage & Communication, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, and Manufacturing industries.

Disclaimer:

Analyst Certification -The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of Mayberry Investments Limited Research Department about those issuer(s) or securities as at the date of this report. Each research analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that research analyst in this research report.

Company Disclosure -The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. You are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Mayberry may effect transactions or have positions in securities mentioned herein. In addition, employees of Mayberry may have positions and effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein.